Three of the last four presidents did much worse in their first midterms: BILL CLINTON lost 54 seats, BARACK OBAMA lost 63 seats, and DONALD TRUMP lost 40 seats. Florida Dems elect Nikki Fried to lead the party after 'horrific November', The bipartisan odd couple banding together to fight election deniers in Arizona, The time George Santos tried to raise crazy money to host a simple rally for Trump, Black candidates keep losing winnable races and say the Democratic Party may be why, No Democratic Bench? We start with a quick taxonomy of three different bad prediction archetypes: Misreading: When you make a sincere, clear-eyed attempt to see things as they are, and come to a reasonable conclusion but the great world spins and things turn out differently because you missed something that proved important. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Vice President Kamala Harris waves during a Martin Luther King Jr. day of service project at George Washington University, Monday, Jan. 16, 2023, in Washington. Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections Source: Data compiled by author According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are. Mayes finished 280 votes ahead of Hamadeh, down from a lead of 511 in the original count. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. NEW YORK Gov. By Blake Hounshell. The 2022 elections are on track to cost a projected $16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan campaign finance tracking organization OpenSecrets. What is Michael Moore's prediction for the 2022 Midterm Elections? Michael Moore, who predicted Donald Trump's 2016 victory, has made a prediction about the 2022. Wassermans final House prediction: Heading into Election Day, 212 seats are at least Lean Republican, 188 seats are at least Lean Democrat and there are 35 Toss Ups. RT @AceElections: In 2022 all of Election Twitter learned a valuable lesson and that is to never question @RalstonReports when it comes to his predictions in the state of Nevada. Chris Christie dinged former President Donald Trump for Herschel Walkers defeat Tuesday in Georgias Senate runoff. If this trend continues across the country, it threatens to upend a major linchpin of future Democratic paths to victory. Find out how Emergent perceives, prepares, and protects. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. And the fallout, fueled by cross-country migration and even the Covid death toll, could linger into 2024 and beyond. A recount of votes has confirmed Democrat Kris Mayes narrowly defeated Republican Abraham Hamadeh in the Arizona attorney generals race, one of the closest elections in state history. He previously was legislative director for Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and is a Henry Waxman alum. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo. (REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY/File Photo), Karl Rove: In a way, it was never going to be a 'red wave'. Thirty-nine state and territorial U.S. gubernatorial elections, as well as numerous state and local elections, were also contested. The duo also got the deets on how Trump landed on Ron DeSanctimonious as a new nickname for the governor: some people close to him said the decision to cast Mr. DeSantis as hypocritically pious solidified itself after the governors team released a video Friday aimed at infusing his candidacy with a sense of the divine., Our colleagues Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout write from Miami that Trump largely held his fire on Sunday night. A recent Wall Street Journalpoll showed just a 5-point lead for Democrats among Hispanics that's a margin that wouldve been unthinkable a decade ago. | Francis Chung/POLITICO. Former President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday, Nov. 6, in Miami. Republicans are still suffering from the pandemics fallout. | Butch Dill/AP Photo. Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk had an argument about Twitter on Twitter. We call upon Congress and demand Congress conduct a House ethics investigation into George Santos, Robert Zimmerman, a Democrat who lost to his opponent by a 54 to 46 percent margin in November, said Thursday. All Rights Reserved. But Hochul and Adams are banking that a unified approach will move the needle on a number of top items from changes to the states controversial laws ending cash bail to a rapid increase in housing development in a state controlled entirely by Democrats. But on Tuesday, we saw where the plot was headed. The 2022 midterm elections will not only decide control of both the U.S. House and Senate, but also who sits behind the governor's desk in 36 out of the nation's 50 states. It wont be true. (For a non-political example, me predicting in August that this will be the year the Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl.). NEW YORK George Santos general election opponent called for a House investigation into the GOP member-elect over biographical fabricationshe told on the campaign trail as Democrats plotted how to take back the district. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 Election Central 2022 Latest Election Polls Biden Job Approval Direction of Country Generic Ballot Senate Polls House Polls Governor Polls. But rarely has a rift at the top of a party spilled so fully into view at such a pivotal moment, NYTs Michael Bender and Patricia Mazzei write. we are still at a stage in the 2022 election cycle when the names of many of the horses aren't even known. Suddenly, Gluesenkamp Perez, 34, was facing off against a Donald Trump-backed Republican in the solidly red district. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). That comes to somewhere north of $241 million and counting., Warnock, Walker get personal in Georgias closing arguments, by APs Bill Barrow and Jeff Amy in Atlanta, In Georgias midterms, a slow-burning health care crisis takes a back seat to the economy, by NBCs J.J. McCorvey: Democrats are trying to motivate voters on Medicaid and abortion in a state where health services are dwindling, most recently in Atlanta. Walker, a former University of Georgia football superstar, was defeated Tuesday by Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, in Georgias Senate runoff. office Kate OConnor of the House Energy and Commerce Committee Jose Diaz-Balart Donald Kohn (8-0) Brunswick Groups Siobhan Gorman Brad Woodhouse of Protect Our Care Aanchal Sahay of Planned Parenthood Federation former Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (R-Minn.) (92) Michael Kratsios former CIA Director David Petraeus George Thompson of FleishmanHillard David Grossman Jeff Bjornstad Pat Devlin. Kris Mayes, a Democratic candidate for Arizona attorney general, smiles before a debate against Republican Abraham Hamadeh on Sept. 28, 2022. Wasserman's final House prediction: "Heading into Election Day, 212 seats are at least Lean Republican, 188 seats are at least Lean Democrat and there are 35 Toss Ups. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Across the country this year, candidates rose to the top of the ticket with a modern set of political qualities: pugilistic loyalty, polarizing rhetoric, the skills to command a television camera and commandeer a room. Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. I predict the GOP will win the national popular vote by about 5.5 points, likely gaining between 31 and 40 House seats in the process. Aside from a few select issues, its unlikely much will get done in Washington. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Illustrations by Josie Norton for POLITICO. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 35 Senate elections in 2022. But the driver was an African American gentleman. I cover so many local races that I had to do an accompanying San Francisco story. Kari Lake, who, during the campaign, would not commit to accepting the results of her race, as she repeated former President Donald Trumps false claim that the 2020 election was rigged. 3 Questions We Have About George Santos Jan 5, 2023; Congress. Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio blew the doors off in the Sunshine State. In a review of several political science models of how Democrats should fare in 2022 given fundamentals like the state of the economy and JOE BIDENs approval rating, Vanderbilts John Sides notes that Democrats expected losses should be about 40-45 seats, which is well above the range predicted by major handicappers. A consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters . The . REPUBLICANS MAKE HUGE GAINS AMONG BLACK AND LATINO VOTERS AS DEMS FEAR 'PARADIGM-SHIFT': POLL. Return here to share it. Though Republicans may not be able to completely turn the country around all at once Joe Biden is still president, after all the GOP can still provide a very effective brake pedal. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. Matthew O'Shea is facing a tough battle against . Supporters of both candidates have accused the other side of unfairly injecting race into the campaign. In the latest incident, Phillips allegedly kicked the dog of a woman named Tifani Eledge with his boot, causing a cut to the animals stomach, according to an affidavit attached to a warrant for Phillips arrest. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. It is not a faith shared by everyone, not even among fellow Democrats, not even among his own advisers and allies, some of whom view the coming days with dread. The forecast. Trumps election supposedly meant the end of the Democratic Partys presidential prospects. But on that Friday, crammed in a narrow Embraer 175 plane, the blue light of his laptop bouncing off the overhead compartment, Nkwonta doesnt know any of this, that Warnocks win would be the ultimate outcome of his lawsuit. Republicans will likely govern the House by a distinct margin. Its going to be a disaster for Social Security and Medicare. I met up with Gluesenkamp Perez for lunch at Charlie Palmer Steakhouse in D.C. its white tablecloths and suit-clad patrons casting a stark contrast with the antler-forward decor and outdoor gear of the other Washingtons eateries. Rep.-elect George Santos tried to explain his problematic resume, which was first revealed by the New York Times, in interviews Monday by saying hed embellished his background. Pic Another pic, HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Sam Graves (R-Mo. If those Toss Ups were to split evenly down the middle, Republicans would wind up at around 230 seats (+17). No, Republicans arent parading through the streets of Rome like a conquering army, its important to keep perspective on what Tuesday nights election results mean. The thread begins with a heartfelt message from committeeman Richard Porter from Illinois on Thanksgiving Day. The voting is over and the 2022 midterm elections have (almost) wrapped up. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Are you enjoying this article? Democrats bragged for years about how their advantage among Hispanic voters would propel them to a permanent majority. GOP officials in Pennsylvania are also in the process of launching initiatives aimed at persuading more of their supporters to vote by mail a method many of them had previously criticized, challenged in court and tried to repeal legislatively and healing intraparty divides across the states diverse regions. History tells us. A gain over that would surpass the Democrats' recent high mark and represent them breaking into some bluer turf.. DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. His whole premise for getting elected is based on lies so its a novel problem, said Risa Heller, a leading crisis communications expert who represented Ivanka Trump during her fathers first year in office and Anthony Weiner after his infamous tweet. As of 5 p.m., a total of 444,731 ballots have been cast in Chicago's municipal elections, including voting at the polling places on Election Day, early voting, and voting by mail. The Senate is still up for grabs. Send Playbookers tips to [emailprotected] or text us at 202-556-3307. BIDENS MONDAY:9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the Presidents Daily Brief.4 p.m.: Biden will participate in virtual receptions for the DNC.5:45 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart the White House en route to Bowie, Md.7 p.m.: The Bidens will participate in a rally for Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate WES MOORE.8:25 p.m.: The Bidens will depart Bowie to return to the White House.Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:45 p.m.VP KAMALA HARRIS MONDAY (all times Eastern):4:10 p.m.: The VP will deliver remarks at a political event at UCLA.5 p.m.: Harris will join a virtual political event. "Demographics is destiny" was their refrain. , Race has played a central role in the Wisconsin senatorial election, which is among the closest in the country and could determine the partisan balance of the Senate. Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally ahead of the midterm elections, in Miami, Florida, U.S., November 6, 2022. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.