The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. But we can't do it without you. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. In February 2023, 47 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a . LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party has slipped behind the opposition Labour party to its lowest level since the 2019 national. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. We will not share your email address with any third parties. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. YouGov said that among those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they plan to vote Labour, Sunak's net favourability score, the percentage who have a 'favourable' opinion minus the . Should the public's feeling remain largely down. Journalism in Britain is under threat. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. Use at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. The YouGov polling for The Times also suggests widespread public dissatisfaction with the government's economic plan. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. Please check you have typed it correctly. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action, Nicola Sturgeons SNP government blocking Scotlands 'success in the UK', says Sir Keir Starmer, Met Police in London urged to investigate the SNP's Covid 'crime of the century', Campaigners believe longstanding failures in the Scottish healthcare regulation were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to up to 30,000 avoidable deaths and they won't stop until they get justice, Prince Harry feels 'stuck' with Meghan Markle in America as biographer claims he wants them to come home, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex quit the UK in 2020 but observers reckon the move has not worked out for them, Tax authorities 'destroyed' Rangers, former chairman Charles Green tells court, Green also spoke of his dislike for Craig Whyte, telling the court 'if we had a collection in this court we would have more money from that than Craig Whyte would ever have', Prince Harry set to lose Dukedom as King's eviction is block on him 'deputising', More rejection for Prince Harry as experts reckon his UK eviction is a tactical move to stop him from being able to step into Royal roles in the event of King Charles's absence, Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's joint bank account is key to resignation, says Private Eye, The outgoing SNP leader and her chief executive husband are urged to answer the question about whether or not they have a joint bank account, as the magazine says Operation Branchform was the 'game-changer' behind shock resignation, Teaching strikes reprieve in doubt as union blasts 14% pay rise as 'paltry'. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . A YouGov poll earlier this week gave Truss a 19-point advantage over Sunak in a head-to-head. President has no right to express opinion on legality of LG polls: AKD Sri Lanka Daily Mirror 02:32 25-Feb-23. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? Dates. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers. N.B. A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. It's Andrew's Previews for. The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. The poll for the Sun found. CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the . Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. YouGov found . 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. . This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. The survey puts Yes and No roughly neck-and-neck, which has been a consistent trend in polling for over a year. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng's 'mini-Budget'shows the Tories have taken a severe hit following the poor reception to the Growth Plan. All Rights Reserved. July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. All Rights Reserved. Pollster. That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . The pollster found. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. It found 72% of voters - including 69% of those who voted Tory in 2019 -. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . /Which party are you most inclined to support? As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. Indeed between October 2020 and January 2021, the two major parties were running neck and neck. Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' in 'hammer blow' to city, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free, The SNP is tearing itself apart and its delicious to watch, Dumbarton police stop 'dangerous' vehicle on A82 as driver fails cannabis test, Scots on alert for snow and ice as country prepares for coldest day of the year, Row over pupils who damaged Koran raises free speech concerns Braverman, Suella Braverman to issue blasphemy guidance for schools following Quran incident in Wakefield, Snow and ice warning as coldest day of year so far to hit UK as temperatures plummet, Met Office issues weather warnings with snow and ice on way with temperatures feeling as low as, How bad are the pics?: WhatsApps show UK health secretary Matt Hancocks reaction after CCTV, WhatsApp leak reveals Hancocks 41-hour battle to save job over affair, Hancock hit out at Sunak amid fears Eat Out to Help Out spread Covid, Hancock hit out at Sunak amid concerns over Eat Out to Help Out scheme, King Charles to get holy oil from Jerusalem for coronation ceremony, Oil for UKs Charles IIIs coronation consecrated in Jerusalem, 'Pincers are closing': Ukrainian forces under pressure as Russians shell roads out of Bakhmut, Ukraine latest: Forces under severe pressure in Bakhmut, says UK military, Thousands protest over economic woes in Tunisia, Tunisians take part in UGTT labour union anti-government rally, UN nuclear chief cites cooperation with Iran on issues obstructing nuclear deal, UN nuclear chief hopeful for 'important agreements' during Iran visit, Indonesians search charred homes after fuel depot fire kills 18, At least 15 dead after Jakarta fuel depot fire engulfs neighborhood, Australian and US police seize 640m of cocaine and swap it for fake drugs to catch smuggling, Australia's 'biggest drug bust' stops 500m of cocaine from entering country, Sport Utility Vehicle for sale in Scotland, Hatchback cars for sale in Central Scotland, Cars with alloy wheels for sale in Scotland, Used cars with alloy wheels for sale in Scotland, Forgot your password? NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. For Labour and the Lib Dems parties which also supported the legislation and oppose Westminsters intervention the figures are 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively., The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 11 Feb 2023. All Rights Reserved. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. Sustainable shooting key to governments nature recovery plans, Press release: Shootings role outlined to the new Welsh parliament, Liz Truss says she would use nuclear warfare, Hidden history: The Nazi-Soviet pact which Russia now tries to deny, The bigotry of Ukip is swamping the Conservative party, Very quietly, the coalition tries to dismantle judicial review, Comment: Anti-porn laws allow police to target those they don't like, Ambulance unions approached for pay talks after GMB tightens derogations, Reticulated giraffe heads to London Zoo before big breeding programme move, IRC Statement on IDC Report into UK Aid spend by the Home Office, Corporation tax is the tool to incentivise net zero, Trees: most accurate data yet shows glaring disparity in tree cover across England. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. The latest Panelbase survey. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Yahoo News / YouGov polls . Latest Westminster voting intention (14-15 Feb)Con: 22% (-2 from 8-9 Feb)Lab: 50% (+3)Lib Dem: 9% (-1)Reform UK: 7% (+1)Green: 6% (=)SNP: 4% (=)https://t.co/WMc2U2wZbs pic.twitter.com/NZ9QZygUG7. Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. The rank outsider to become First Minister has only received the public backing of one serving politician, Joanna Cherry, amid struggles to get her campaign going. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Charities & not-for-profit. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. The TLE shop is also now open, with all profits going to supporting our work. An existing account was found for this email address. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Please ensure your password has at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol.